Summary:

If you want to know where is the bottom of the stock market, my experience told me never never believe the so-called experts’ predictions. From the middle of September, tons of host sitting on CNBC, Bloomberg and blogs made comments on the market bottom (of course, including me – not an expert)… What you should [...]

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If you want to know where is the bottom of the stock market, my experience told me never never believe the so-called experts’ predictions. From the middle of September, tons of host sitting on CNBC, Bloomberg and blogs made comments on the market bottom (of course, including me – not an expert)…

What you should trust? – let me make a bold projection here. You should trust individual investor – not institutional investor, not Fed senior economists, not politicians, and definitely not believe the medias on TV.

From 2001 to 2005, when Chinese stock market tumbled into a 4-year bear market, the original crowded hallway of securities companies became empty… only few seniors sat there to spent retirement days out there. All newspapers’ front page did not provide any report on stocks – of course, people just got used to 50% or even lower price of his portfolios and won’t ask for any updates since the only outcome to do that is even more depressed.

U.S. market is quite different. Investors are almost living in a heaven compare with the investors in China. You can shot selling, you can transact stocks with T+0 rule, and you can hedge or speculate stocks with options and futures. But do not forget one thing, people still want to make transactions in bull market since the downward market is always tough for common investors like me. Because most transactions are made electronically. Traders on Wall Street has no choice not to transact in the market. From this perspective, we do not know how cool the market is. Sometimes the daily volumes are just fake – too many institutional investors are short and long – sometimes just do this himself.

Well, a little statistics that I noticed recently provided us an interesting results. The Mitbbs forum is a very popular Chinese BBS for those Chinese living in U.S. there is a blog ‘GuhaiGuanchao’, stocks or investing forum our there. It will show how many posts in there every minute. From September 15th while the market was melt down, I made a little statistics. Every night, around 10:00pm EST, the number of post out there. Here is the graphic:

www.mitbbs.com

Hoho…It looks like this is much worse than the stock market and even energy market,

Does this mean the market touch down the bottom? Maybe we are not miles away from that…maybe we need to wait until nobody post out there – that is what happened in China – a 1.3 billion population country!

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